No one is able to perfectly predict the outcome of every sporting event. However, this does not imply that it is impossible to become a profitable sports bettor, nor that those who are profitable are merely lucky.

THE GOAL IS NOT TO WIN EVERY BET, BUT TO MAKE +EV BETS

The goal when betting is not to win every bet you place, but to make decisions that have a positive expected value (+EV). In other words, you want to place bets that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the odds you bet on.

BEATING THE CLOSING LINE EQUALS + EV

As previously described, the sharp bookmakers’ closing lines are considered to be the expected value. This means that If you traded at higher odds than the closing line, you have made a +EV bet.

On the other hand, if your odds are lower than the closing line, your bet has a negative expected value (-EV). In that case, it’s time to revise your strategy. You can read more about the closing line in this article.

SUCCESSFUL SPORTS BETTING IS A LONG RUN GAME

Over a small sample size of bets, variance will have a dominating impact on your results. In other words, anything can happen. However, over a large volume of bets, the variance will even out and luck is replaced with skill.

In the end, only sports bettors who are able to consistently beat the vig-free closing lines at the sharp bookmakers will be profitable.