How Quickly Can You Make €5,000 from Betting? | Looking at the Trademate Sports User Data

18 Nov, 2020

Last year, we analysed the results of our users to produce this article, which looked at, on average, what profits and ROI you could achieve using our software, based on the amount of bets you’ve placed.

This time, we’ve mixed it up a little bit. We’re looking at what average profits & ROI our customers have achieved after certain milestones in turnover. This article is based on our user data, from both free trials and paid subscribers, up until the 28th of May, 2020.

Before going through what we thought were the most interesting outcomes of the data, firstly, we will outline some of the limitations of the data.

Limitations of the Data

Since the beginning of Trademate Sports, or formerly known as Edgebet, we have had tens of thousands of users. But unfortunately, we have either not been able to record all of their results using the software or only some of their results (e.g. number of trades recorded but not profits). So this data is not a reflection of EVERY user we have ever had.
Our users do have the ability to tamper with their results. For example, if one wanted to, they could delete certain trades or register their own bets within the software. Although this is very uncommon as there is no benefit to doing so.
Once we compiled all the user data, we found some very obscure and inaccurate data for some users; results that are almost impossible occurrences under the circumstances presented. In these cases we deleted the data. For example, we removed the data of a user who reached €8,073 profit after turning over €5,276 and placing over 3,400 trades. That means he or she had an ROI of 160% after placing 3,400 trades. Although we believe in our software, those kinds of results are hugely unrealistic!
The further you go to the right on our table (the higher the turnover), the smaller the sample size of users. So you can make more accurate assumptions from the left-hand side of the table, compared to the right.

The Data

Below are what we thought were the most interesting outcomes from the data.

1. More Turnover = More Profits

Similar to what we saw in the article we released last year, ‘Trademate user data proves more trades = more profits’, the more turnover you achieve, the greater your profits will be with the Trademate Sports software. Which is what you should expect!

If you’re not an experienced value bettor, you should know that the key to value betting is maximising the amount of trades you place. Why? Because when you have such a small sample size of trades, variance can and will affect your results massively. Read more about variance here.

Like the ol’ coin flip example says; flip it a couple of times and it might land on heads every time, but flip it thousands of times and you should get pretty close to 50/50.

2. Getting Past the €25k Hump

Just like the 1,000 trade hump, when speaking about turnover, it seems there is a €25,000 hump. When going from bracket 10k-25k to 25k-50k there is a significant leap in average profits per trader. And from there, your profit growth is exponential. This is because, with the use of the Kelly Criterion, you are always betting a % of your bankroll. So when your bankroll is rising, so is your staking. Bigger stakes = bigger growth.

Also, the EARLIEST point you can judge your betting results is around the 1,000 trade mark. If your goal is to become a successful value bettor and you’re not committed to getting to that mark then there really is no point in starting. Value betting with Trademate Sports is all about placing a high number of trades with small edges, which over time, add up to massive amounts of value taken from the bookmaker.

Check out this 3-part article, where we asked betting experts when you can accurately judge your betting results. As you will read, a big sample size is key.

3. How many months of subscription does it take to get to each stage?

This is quite a hard question to answer as it depends on your starting bankroll. If you start with €1,000, it’s going to take you a lot longer to turnover €500,000 than it would be if you started with €5,000. We also don’t know what the average starting bankroll was for the users in this data. So let’s just go off the table above and say that you place 500 trades a month, which is EASILY achievable with our software, some customers place over 1,000 trades a month.

1 month (500 trades) = 10k-25k bracket
2 months (1,000 trades) = 10k-25k bracket
3 months (1,500 trades) = 25k-50k bracket
4 months (2,000 trades) = 50k-100k bracket
5 months (2,500 trades) = 100k-250k bracket
6 months (3,000 trades) = 100k-250k bracket
7 months (3,500 trades) = 100k-250k bracket
8 months (4,000 trades) = 250k-500k bracket

Once again, these numbers are easily achievable. It would be very possible to be sitting in the 250k-500k bracket after using the software for just four or five months.

4. The Importance of a Bigger Starting Bankroll

Like we stated in the paragraph above, the amount of profits you achieve with Trademate is based heavily on your starting bankroll. Just take the difference in results between our CEO - Marius Norheim, and Marketing Manager - Alex Vella. Marius started Trademate with $6,000, while Alex started with only $1,000. After only 3,000 trades, Marius achieved a profit of $6,421 US. While Alex had only profited $1,478 US after 3,000 trades.

So when looking at the table, make sure you take into account that yes, you can achieve €25,000 turnover in one month, but that would be with a bigger starting bankroll.

5. Why does the the ROI drop in the 10k-25k bracket?

This goes back to what we were saying in point one & two. In this bracket, the average number of trades placed is 694. When the amount of trades placed is this low, it means there can be high variance in your results. It is very hard to answer the question: “how many trades do I need to place before variance has played out?” But we would definitely say that the EARLIEST would be after you’ve placed 1,000 trades. The earliest!

6. Why is the ROI so high in the 100k-250k bracket?

This is quite a hard question to answer. You could say that once you’ve placed this amount of bets that you are quite an experienced value bettor, and that you’ve refined your strategy to become more profitable over time. But then you might say, “so why does it drop back down to 2.26% in the next bracket?” Which completely negates the prior statement.

So for this one, we are going to say it’s down to complete randomness, or as we like to say in betting, variance! The further you go to the right on our table, the smaller the sample size of users, which means more variance. Just like your betting results, the bigger the sample size, the more you can accurately judge your results.

7. Why is there only a 154 average trade increase from 50k-100k to 100k-250k turnover?

There are two possible answers to this. One, because the turnover ranges are quite big. In other words, the user data from 50k-100k could be mostly people who have turned over 99k. While on the other hand, the users from the 100k-250k range could be people who have mostly turned over 101k.

The other answer could be, which refers back to the statements made in point three & four, that the users in the 50k-100k bracket had a small starting bankroll, while the users in the 100k-250k bracket had large starting bankroll. The bigger your starting bankroll, the less trades you have to place to achieve high turnover.

If you have any questions about this article, please feel free to comment below or send a message to our support chat. You can also check out an article we made that is very similar to this one here: ‘Trademate user data proves more trades = more profits’.

Your next step

Make sure to check out the Ultimate Guide to Using Trademate Sports if you have not done so already. It gives you an overview of all of the things you should know about maximising the potential of using Trademate. We also recommend checking out the following articles for more inspiration:

#trademate performance