Game Analysis Betting Strategy - 8 Step Process to Finding an Edge

There are lots of different ways to make money from sports betting, or, to find an edge in a particular sport. You've probably heard strategies like modeling and steam chasing to gain an edge in sports betting, but another way of approaching your betting is through game analysis. It could be any sport - MMA, Soccer, Basketball etc., the main idea of game analysis is to use your eyes to gain an edge. This article will take you through an 8-step process to help you analyse a match and turn that into a +EV bet.

Step 1: Choose a Sport or League to Specialise In

Focusing on one sport or league allows you to dive deeply, becoming well-informed and skilled in that area. It helps if you choose a sport that you’re already very knowledgeable in, or you enjoy watching. If you’re new to sports betting, consider starting with a smaller league where fewer people place bets. Smaller leagues, due to limited public information and lower betting volume, often have softer odds, giving you a better chance to identify value.

Additionally, align your choice with your bankroll and experience. Larger leagues like the Premier League may offer high betting limits, but the competition and accuracy of odds are much tougher. A smaller league with sufficient betting liquidity and manageable limits can be ideal for beginners to build skills without facing intense market competition. An easy way to find out how sharp a market is, is to go onto a sharp bookmaker like Pinnacle Sports and check what their limits are on a particular league. Generally, the higher those limits are, the harder that league is to beat.

Tip: Pick a betting market that aligns with your bankroll and betting style, such as 1X2, totals, or player props. Also, choose a sport that you understand and have previous knowledge of.

Step 2: Immerse Yourself in the League

To gain an edge, you need more than basic stats and league tables; you must truly know the teams, players, and league environment. Dive into the specifics of your chosen league, consuming every possible source of information:

  • Follow journalists and bloggers with deep insight into the league on social media.
  • Watch every game if possible, or at the very least review condensed game highlights.
  • Explore podcasts and YouTube channels focused on the league or specific teams.
  • Seek diverse perspectives from fans, experts, and pundits to get well-rounded insights.

Becoming familiar with each team’s play style, strengths, and weaknesses allows you to identify potential mismatches or opportunities that casual bettors and bookmakers might overlook. By immersing yourself in every bit of information possible, you’ll be able to see where your opinions do and do not align with others and allow you to observe the consensus of the crowd.

writing notes

Step 3: Document Observations and Opinions

Organize your observations in a spreadsheet. Recording your thoughts on teams, players, and matchups as they come to mind can provide a valuable reference point for future analysis. For example, you might note trends like Team A struggling against high-pressing opponents, or Player X consistently excelling in away games.

These notes form a base of qualitative information that becomes critical during match-up assessments, allowing you to make informed bets based on both data and informed intuition.

Step 4: Validate Opinions with Data (Without Confirmation Bias)

Now that you have formed opinions, it’s essential to cross-check these with statistical data. For instance, if you believe a player is particularly strong in creating scoring chances, verify this with stats on assists, key passes, and expected assists (xA). However, be cautious about confirmation bias—don’t overlook data points that contradict your expectations. True insight comes from evaluating all available data rather than cherry-picking what aligns with your perspective.

soccer game

Step 5: Analyse Matchups

With solid groundwork in place, it’s time to analyse specific matchups in the context of your knowledge. Look at each upcoming game in your chosen league and ask:

  1. Which team has an advantage?
  2. What’s the likely game flow (e.g., high-scoring, defensive)?
  3. How could my prediction be wrong?

This last question is crucial. Considering how a game might defy your expectations encourages a balanced, less-biased approach and helps you assess risk. Imagine betting against your own opinion and ask yourself how the other side could win—this exercise can reveal potential weaknesses in your initial assumptions.

Step 6: Assign Probabilities Before Checking Odds

Creating independent probabilities before looking at bookmakers' odds helps you avoid skewed judgment and ensures that your estimates are unbiased. For example, if you’re considering betting Liverpool vs. Arsenal, decide the likelihood of a Liverpool win before seeing the odds, such as 50% (or implied odds of 2.0).

Once you have these probabilities, compare them to the odds available. If the bookmaker’s odds for Liverpool are higher than 2.0, you’ve identified value according to your calculations. However, translating probabilities into value bets takes practice and experience; if you’re new to this, start by analysing markets that offer close-to-even odds (1.90 on both sides in most cases). Why? Because these markets are a lot easier to assess in terms of probabilities. It’s much easier to assign probabilities to close match up’s (e.g. Fighter X should be favoured over Fighter Y, in comparison to, Fighter X has a 63.5% chance vs Fighter Y’s 36.5% chance).

Step 7: Compare Your Odds with the Market

If your probabilities differ significantly from bookmaker odds, especially for major leagues, you may need to reassess. Markets in popular leagues like the Premier League are generally efficient due to high betting volume, meaning major discrepancies likely indicate an error on your part. For instance, if you calculate Liverpool's odds at 5.00 (20% chance), but bookmakers offer 3.50, you’re likely missing huge pieces of information that justify the lower odds.

Use this step to identify potential oversights—such as weather conditions, player injuries, or a recent change in tactics—that may affect the game outcome.

market

Step 8: Review the Results (Closing Line Analysis)

After placing bets, review the outcomes not just by game results but by whether you "beat the closing line." This is the final odds set by bookmakers before the match, often considered the most accurate reflection of probabilities. For example, if you bet on Liverpool at odds of 5.00 and they close at 4.00, your odds were likely favorable, indicating that your analysis was in line with the market’s final stance.

Consistently beating the closing line over time is one of the best indicators that your analysis holds up well, and it's essential for sustainable profitability in sports betting. If your bets consistently close below the odds you received, it’s a strong indication of finding true value.

Conclusion

Mastering these steps is a long-term process that requires practice, discipline, and continuous learning. By specialising in one league, staying on top of news, analysing data carefully, and maintaining an objective approach, you can build an edge that leads to informed and potentially profitable bets.

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