To give you a bit more insight into the performance of our users and software, every month we go through our overall results, as well as taking a deeper look into our performance with each individual sport and leagues.

We are doing this with the help of our back-logged data. This is because the big data tool inside the software has a cap of 10,000 trades to speed up loading time, so for some of our sports it will not show results of every trade placed in August. There are no filters on this data, it is every trade placed no matter what the odds range, time placed, edge, etc.

Limitations

Before we get into how we performed in August, it’s important to note some of the limitations of the data we will show you:

1. For the Flat ROI calculations, stake sizing of €1 per trade is used to remove the effect of users with large bankrolls skewing the results. Also, this way we can see whether our edge is based on beating the market, rather than the Kelly criterion.
2. There is a chance that some of the bets in this data are duplicated as multiple customers could be placing the same bet. But the chances of this happening regularly are low as our user-base is quite geographically-diverse, which means they have to use different bookmakers.
3. Something else that is possible but even more rare is customers logging their own bets manually within our software. Those bets are not recommended by us, but they will still appear in this data, win, lose or void.
4. Some of the sample sizes will be very low, meaning no conclusions should be taken from those data-sets. The bigger the sample size the more accurate the data. Generally, a sample size of under 2,000 trades will include a lot more randomness and needs to be taken with a grain of salt or completely ignored.

Results & Key Findings

In the month of August, 151,267 trades were placed, €15,366,686 was turned over and €456,734.35 was profited at an ROI of 2.97%. Here is how each sport performed, broken down into recommended leagues (popular/bigger leagues) and non-recommended leagues (lower/smaller leagues):

Soccer

European leagues are back! To the delight of all traders and fans alike, we see the return of our favorite leagues. Not only are they back but they have brought the results with them. Both non-league and recommended leagues had a good sample size and fantastic month with over 3% ROI all round.

Tennis

Mixed results from Tennis in August. While recommended leagues/events experienced some major variance of a -20% ROI, you’ll notice a much smaller sample size compared to the non-recommended leagues. While non-recommended managed a 3% ROI, due to the sample size being 8 times larger, overall Tennis traders using both leagues were in profit in August. That simply emphasizes the point we talk about a lot, that gambling in the short term can be largely luck but over the large sample size it evens out and overall covered the short term losses from recommended leagues.

Basketball

It’s the summer break for all major basketball leagues. As minor leagues go, a healthy sample size and small profits for traders. I’ve noticed a frequent large gap between edge when placed and closing edge when it comes to non-league basketball. I recommend traders to take some time to look into analytics, lines for these leagues don’t receive big money until close to tip-off due to lack of interest in their leagues. This means the prices a fair few hours before are likely to change a lot, so consider a shorter time frame. Also try and judge the difference between one early and large bet in a market with low liability, causing it to crash in the short term compared to a general market trend downwards. You want the entire market to be trending the way you are betting rather than copying a large bet that has moved in the market in the short term as by tip off the lines / true odds may have moved back.

Ice Hockey

Generally speaking, the good form continues for Ice Hockey traders. The NHL however is in its off-season, so August was only minor leagues. They did manage a whopping 8.57% ROI and possibly even better to see is the consistently high closing edge, with August having a 4.95% average closing edge. It seems lately Ice Hockey lines have been really off and Trademate users have been consistently taking advantage of it.

Baseball

Another good month for MLB traders, this season has been fairly consistent post the first few weeks. Traders have seemed to get the hang of baseball betting and another profitable month. A small swing in variance in minor leagues, which can be expected to some extent at a 5th of the sample size compared to MLB.

CS:GO (Esports)

The undefeated streak continues for CS:GO and Esports. Back with more profit and back with an improved 4.44% ROI for the month. Easily 2021’s most consistent performer on Trademate, it will be interesting how it fairs up at the end of the year once the sample size is much larger but so far Esports has had little variance.

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And that’s all she wrote for my latest Trademate Sports monthly results. Although most of these results come with huge samples, it’s important to take them with a grain of salt. Just because a sport is profitable or unprofitable doesn’t mean that you trade on every single bet that comes through our software. Follow our recommended presets, and run some simulations on our big data tool yourself to figure out the best odds ranges, times to trade, etc.

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